A recent study published in The Lancet has provided updated forecasts for life expectancy in China. The report suggests that China is poised to increase the average life expectancy at birth from 77.7 years in 2019 to 79 years by 2030, which aligns with the Healthy China 2030 plan, and further to 81.3 years by 2035 as per the 14th Five-Year National Health Plan. By 2035, the average life expectancy for women is expected to reach 85.1 years, while for men it is projected to be 78.1 years.
Comparative Global Context
In comparison, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported a global average life expectancy of 73 in 2019. An average life expectancy of 81.3 would place China within the top-30 globally, alongside countries like Denmark and the United Kingdom.
Implications for Health and Social Services Policies
The study’s authors highlight the importance of these improvements in life expectancy for macro planning in health and social services policies, especially considering China’s declining fertility rate. The expected increase in life expectancy outpaces the growth in “healthy life expectancy” (years lived without disability), indicating a need for policymakers to focus on new strategies to prevent or delay chronic diseases and promote healthy longevity and aging.
Regional Variations and Rapid Increase in Western and Rural Provinces
The report’s forecasts are slightly higher than previous studies, particularly for women. In certain provinces such as Beijing, Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, women are expected to have a high probability of surpassing 90 years on average. Additionally, life expectancy is anticipated to increase rapidly in western and rural provinces, including Tibet.
Methodology and Study Details
The study was conducted by researchers at Nanjing University of Science and Technology and the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. They utilized the same approach as the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate age-specific mortality and evaluate population data in China from 1990 to 2019. Various forecasting models were then applied to project future trends (for the full report, see here).-Fineline Info & Tech
