Eli Lilly Reports Strong Q2 Growth but Shares Dip on Orforglipron Data

Eli Lilly Reports Strong Q2 Growth but Shares Dip on Orforglipron Data

US pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: LLY) reported another strong quarterly performance with a 38% year-on-year (YOY) increase in revenue to USD 15.56 billion for Q2 2025. However, the company’s share price dipped following the release of topline data from the Phase III ATTAIN-1 trial for its oral glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) agonist obesity drug candidate, orforglipron.

Key Product Sales
Lilly’s GLP-1/GIP-targeted metabolic drug tirzepatide generated total sales of USD 8.58 billion. Mounjaro sales increased by 68% to USD 5.2 billion, while Zepbound sales grew by 172% YOY to USD 3.38 billion. Over the six-month period, Mounjaro sales were up 85% to USD 9.04 billion, and Zepbound reached USD 5.69 billion, resulting in a USD 14.73 billion revenue for tirzepatide in the first half of 2025. In comparison, Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide generated USD 17.5 billion in H1 2025, but on a slower growth trajectory.

Another key blockbuster for Lilly is the CDK4/6 breast cancer drug Verzenio (abemaciclib), which saw Q2 2025 sales increase by 12% to USD 1.49 billion.

Full-Year Guidance Raised
The strong performance led Lilly to raise its full-year revenue guidance to the range of USD 60.0 – 62.0 billion from the previous range of USD 58 – 61 billion. Non-GAAP EPS was raised to USD 21.75 to USD 23, and the performance margin expectation was set at 43%-45.5% of revenue.

Manufacturing Capacity
Lilly has fully addressed manufacturing capacity concerns and now expects to manufacture 1.8 times the number of salable incretin doses in the second half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024.

Orforglipron Trial Results
A day prior to the earnings release, Lilly posted topline data from the ATTAIN-1 Phase III trial for orforglipron. The trial showed the molecule achieving all primary and secondary endpoints. Lilly plans to begin regulatory submissions for the drug by the end of 2025, with the third Phase III ATTAIN-2 study (in obese/overweight patients with type 2 diabetes) to readout in the coming months.

The trial evaluated daily orforglipron compared to placebo in over 3,000 adults with obesity or overweight with a weight-related medical problem and without diabetes. All three dosing groups (6mg, 12mg, 36mg) achieved the primary endpoint of significant weight loss. At 72 weeks, patients treated with orforglipron lost on average between 7.8% to 12.4% of their body weight (compared to 0.9% with placebo). For those on the highest 36 mg dosage, approximately 40% of people lost over 15% of their body weight at an average 27.3 lb weight loss. In addition, all secondary endpoints were met, with the molecule improving key markers of metabolic health such as blood pressure, cholesterol, and inflammation.

The overall safety profile was described as “consistent with the established GLP-1 receptor agonist class,” with no liver-related signals. The treatment discontinuation rate due to adverse events was 10.3% for the 36 mg dosage, while overall treatment discontinuation rates reached 24.4% for the 36 mg dosage.

Market Reaction
Despite the positive readout, Lilly’s share price dipped over 14% during trading after the release on August 7. Industry analysts indicated that the weight loss achieved was lower than expected since earlier trials had achieved 14.7% weight loss. In addition, the oral GLP-1 drug appears to produce significantly less weight loss than the injectable form. Both Lilly and Novo have posted Phase III data for the injectable versions of tirzepatide and semaglutide producing over 20% weight loss at the 72-week stage.

Management Commentary
During the earnings conference call, Lilly’s Chief Scientific Officer Daniel M. Skovronsky underlined that orforglipron’s profile “landed pretty much where you could expect a GLP-1 monotherapy to land… Overall, given the patients we enrolled and the trial we ran, this is what GLP-1 agonism can give you.”-Fineline Info & Tech