By Fineline Cube 
Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) announced that China’s Supreme People’s Court upheld the Beijing IP Court ruling, confirming the validity of its semaglutide compound patent. The decision reinforces patent protection for the GLP‑1 analogue underlying Wegovy, Ozempic, and Rybelsus in the world’s second‑largest pharmaceutical market.
Patent Ruling Overview
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Patent | Semaglutide compound patent |
| Court | Supreme People’s Court (China) |
| Ruling | Upholds Beijing IP Court validity decision |
| Date | 31 Dec 2025 |
| Products Covered | Wegovy (obesity), Ozempic/Rybelsus (type 2 diabetes) |
| Strategic Impact | Secures market exclusivity amid intensifying competition |
Product Portfolio & Market Position
Semaglutide is a long‑acting GLP‑1 analogue invented and developed by Novo Nordisk:
- Wegovy: Overweight/obesity management
- Ozempic: Type 2 diabetes (injectable)
- Rybelsus: Type 2 diabetes (oral)
China Market Context:
- GLP‑1 market valued at ¥35 billion (≈ US$4.9 billion) in 2025
- Novo’s share: ~65% of China GLP‑1 market
- Growth trajectory: 40% CAGR driven by obesity and diabetes demand
Financial Impact & Patent Expiry
Previous Guidance:
- Compound patent expiry in certain International Operations countries expected to negatively impact 2026 global sales growth by low‑single digits
- China Ruling: Does not alter previous communication; Chinese patent remains valid through 2028 for compound, 2031 for formulation
Revenue at Risk:
- Ex‑China expiry markets: ~US$2.5 billion annual sales exposure
- China protection: Secures US$850 million+ in 2026 China sales
Generic Threat Mitigation:
- Patent cliff delay in China provides 2‑3 year buffer for market defense
- Biosimilar competition unlikely before 2029 in China due to technical complexity
Competitive Landscape
| Competitor | Product | Mechanism | China Status | Threat Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lilly | Mounjaro (tirzepatide) | GLP‑1/GIP | Approved Jun 2025 | High |
| Lilly | Zepbound (tirzepatide) | GLP‑1/GIP | Approved Sep 2025 | High |
| Domestic players | 13+ GLP‑1 biosimilars | GLP‑1 | Phase III/NDA | Medium |
Strategic Response: Novo is accelerating oral semaglutide capacity expansion in Tianjin and launching Wegovy for obesity in 500+ hospitals Q1 2026.
Legal & Regulatory Foundation
Patent Details:
- CN Patent No.: ZL201480075099.9 (compound)
- Expiry: July 2028 (compound), May 2031 (crystalline formulation)
- Litigation history: Beijing IP Court validity challenge dismissed 2024; Supreme Court appeal denied Dec 2025
Implications:
- No further appeals possible under Chinese law
- Clears path for enforcement against potential infringers
- Strengthens Novo’s negotiating position for local partnerships
Forward‑Looking Statements
This brief contains forward‑looking statements regarding Novo Nordisk’s market position, financial impact, and competitive dynamics in China. Actual results may differ due to regulatory changes, competitive responses, and market access policies.-Fineline Info & Tech